AI in world economy; a glimpse on the nearest future

There is a popular dispute among the readers, writers and any general enthusiast of literature- science fiction is not a proper form or not the purest form of literature out there. I simply do not agree with this opinion- I think if literature is a community and philosophy is the mayor of the community, then science fiction is the fancy-dress competition. No bar in imagination, and depending on the quality of the writing- there will surely be very logical scientific backings which are usually not present in some so-called pure form of literature. Science fiction tells us more about the present than it does about the future. Writers don’t always try to predict the future, they just create a utopian/dystopian/protopian world they may seem plausible by the virtue or curse of science. Through this, sci-fi writings do a very important job for all of us. It provides us with metaphors, scenarios, hypothetical situations, allegories and what not- and then making us think for the future.

In the year 1516, Sir Thomas More wrote his magnum opus book which goes by the name ‘Utopia’- which means an ideal society with minimal crime, violence and poverty. On the other hand, dystopia is the exact opposite of utopia, which signifies a community or society that is undesirable or frightening. Terminator, Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep, 1984, Brave New World- all these scientific creations present a dystopian view of the society. But there are also some utopian ones- most famously ‘Star Trek.’ This awesome cult-classic science fiction TV series presents a world of immense possibility- full of interstellar travel, adventure, and split infinitives. And most importantly, a world without money or poverty.

 

Sir Patrick Stewart as Captain Jean-Luc Picard, Star Trek: First Contact (1996). Credit: imgur.com

 

In the United Federation of Planets in Star Trek, money is basically unnecessary- because energy has become essentially free, and products can be manufactured in so-called Replicators. Replicators are the devices which can create useful (including edible) objects out of whatever matter is available. And also, the Star Trek economy is the post-scarcity economy, the economy of radical abundance. Perhaps if we play our cards right, automation by machine intelligence will simply mean that we humans get to spend our long and healthy lives playing, learning, enjoying each other's company, having adventures and fun. Fun or not, we can clearly see the uber positive and highly optimistic creators of Star Trek really thought of a better future world. They tried to predict a future; which in fact is really a very tough work to do because every prediction can sound stupid and baseless after a certain point. But what if we have a little try to see what the future actually lies ahead? The only thing continuous in this world is a discontinuity, and in this condition predicting the economic impact of AI will obviously be full of speculations. But some current situations will help you understand the economic impact of AI is generally around the world.

There is a program developed by AI researchers at Carnegie Mellon University, which incorporates AI, robotics, and sensor technologies to improve plant breeding and crop management. It is known as FarmView, and the program/project is focused on crop varieties—such as Sorghum, a heat-tolerate grain grown in Africa—in developing countries where the need is greatest. AI can also be used to develop more precise indications of where poverty is distributed, how quickly it is spreading, and help to determine where resources should be allocated. Then again, there is ‘STigmergic Adaptive Responsive LearnING Crossing’- simply known as Starling Crossing. This is an AI-controlled pedestrian crossing that uses several cameras and neural networks to monitor pedestrians, vehicles, and other moving objects, analysing their patterns of movements and providing motorists with clear LED warning signs in real-time. This signifies a perfect use of AI in transportation and things like Starling Crossing also ensures the safety of the citizens. Things like FarmView directly has a contribution- because if it helps to grow crops in Africa, it will also influence the farmer to sell some and start a chain of usual buyer-seller activities, ensuring a healthy life and a solid economic turnover. And Starling Crossing has an indirect impact, but if we stay safe we can ensure our full productivity, meaning we’ll definitely be able to give more effort to thrive and excel. In a paper published by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) in 2018, the researchers presented a report or tried to predict the economic future under AI. They said-  

The results of the simulation of AI’s gross and net effect on GDP and labor markets show that AI could add around 16 percent to global output by 2030, or about $13 trillion, compared with today. This would be incremental value created in addition to current global output. This simulation is a combination of a large increase of 26 percent in GDP growth driven by AI, and costs related to the transition to these technologies (for instance, labor displacement) and their implementation (for example, the deployment of AI solutions), as well as negative externalities for the baseline of economic activity (such as loss of consumption during unemployment). Together these elements may produce an annual average net contribution of about 1.2 percent of activity growth between now and 2030.

So we can understand how huge the impact will be in future.

We can see that there is a digital revolution going on around the world. In the wake of this on-going revolution, we will see a huge and almost unavoidable transformation of our economy and most of our societal institutions. The benefits of this transformation can be massive- but there are also tremendous risks to our society. After the automation of many production processes and the creation of self-driving vehicles, the automation of society will follow suit. This is moving us to a tipping point and a crossroads; we must decide between a society in which the actions are determined in a top-down way and then implemented by coercion or manipulative technologies (such as personalized ads and nudging) or a society, in which decisions are taken in a free and participatory way and mutually coordinated. Modern information and communication systems (ICT) enable both, but the latter has economic and strategic benefits. The fundaments of human dignity, autonomous decision-making, and democracies are shaking, but I believe that they need to be vigorously defended, as they are not only core principles of livable societies but also the basis of greater efficiency and success.

References:

  1. “Societal, Economic, Ethical and Legal Challenges of the Digital Revolution: From Big Data to Deep Learning, Artificial Intelligence, and Manipulative Technologies”- by Dirk Helbing, collected from Cornell University Archives

  2. ITUTrends, Issue Paper No.1, September 2018; The International Telecommunication Union (ITU)

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