AI Daily - Artificial Intelligence News

View Original

What Can History Teach Us About The Growth Of AI

Even before the world had hit the pause button on normal life due to the COVID 19 pandemic, the growth of artificial intelligence was on a strong trajectory. As research progressed and AI was eventually able to beat world professionals at the ancient Chinese game Go, the capabilities of the algorithms used showed huge potential in numerous industries such as healthcare, finance, agriculture and retail. And with the sudden arrival of COVID 19 forcing us a to spend the majority of our day within our homes, we have become more reliant on technologies such as Siri, Alexa and Google home than ever, only further increasing the demand for AI tech. 

Along the rapid growth of artificial intelligence comes a lack of optimism within people about the future of the job market. In 2017, a research survey found that 75% of Americans expressed serious concerns about AI and automation, and only a third believe that their children will be more financially stable than they were. What we seem to ignore is that the socioeconomic impacts of the growth of AI, such as the disappearance of middle-income jobs, stagnant wages and growing inequality are just a sign of history repeating itself - as they were also features of the Industrial Revolution. - the growth of AI presents a technological change that will not only alter the structure of the economy but have a radical effect on the job market. Events from the Industrial Revolution also tell us that anxiety tends to accompany periods of technological revolution, especially when it takes the form of capital which threatens numerous jobs. 

But what can we learn from the Industrial revolution to help us tackle the rapid expansion of the artificial intelligence industry? The first thing to know is that often there is a significant time lag between the acceptance of new transformative technologies by society and their long-term economic and productivity growth. Whether it be steam engines, electricity, computers or artificial intelligence, the time lag occurs with technologies that have radically reshaped economies and lifestyles. 

The growth of transformative technologies has two phases:  investments and harvesting. In their initial phase, these technologies require massive investments, all in order to get products successfully into the market. In general, the more capabilities a technology has, the longer it takes to reach the harvesting phase, at which point they are adopted by the majority of companies and industries across the economy. While it may seem that AI has become a mainstream topic of discussion globally, the fact is that the use of the technology is in its early stages and the extensive investments required for the majority of the economy to adopt this technology will likely reduce productivity growth.  

As of now many people consider artificial intelligence a threat to their livelihoods. But when we look back to the industrial revolution, the short term led to the workers having their jobs threatened and anxiety within workers about how they would provide for their families - there seems to be a striking similarity of these issues with the problems with AI that we face today. Yet in the long run, the Industrial Revolution led to a rising standard of living, improved health, and many other benefits. The hope is that the long term effects of the integration of artificial intelligence tech into our society would also lead to creation of new occupations that will demand a completely new skillset from their employees.  Throughout history,  people have adjusted to technological change by acquiring new skills, which only occurs through the expansion of education. But as researchers discover new technologies, these skills must be regularly updated and when upskilling is lagging behind, it poses a threat to entire social groups that don’t participate in reeducating themselves of being excluded from this growth engine.